Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) DCF Valuation
Two independent models estimate Paychex, Inc.'s fair value between $64.78 (conservative case) and $131.77 (analyst consensus).
What would today's price require?
$101.10 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.4% a year for the next decade — slower than the company has actually grown.
Current Price
$101.10
Fair-Value Range
$64.78 – $131.77
Market-Implied Growth
+10.4%/yr
vs +13.6% 5Y actual
PAYX DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.35B shares · net debt $3.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$64.78
-35.9% vs $101.10
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $101.10; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $82.78 | $87.51 | $93.10 | $99.80 | $108 |
| 9.0% | $69.78 | $73.01 | $76.74 | $81.09 | $86.23 |
| 10.0% | $59.87 | $62.17 | $64.78 | $67.75 | $71.19 |
| 11.0% | $52.09 | $53.77 | $55.65 | $57.77 | $60.17 |
| 12.0% | $45.81 | $47.08 | $48.47 | $50.03 | $51.77 |
About Paychex, Inc.
Founded in 1971 and headquartered in Rochester, New York, Paychex, Inc. delivers comprehensive human capital management (HCM) solutions. The company primarily serves small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across the United States, Europe, and India, addressing their needs in human resources, payroll administration, employee benefits, and insurance. Its diverse service portfolio includes: Payroll Management: Encompassing core payroll processing, payroll tax administration, employee payment facilitation, and ensuring compliance with regulations like new-hire reporting and garnishment processing. Human Resources Solutions: Providing support for employer compliance, HR and employee benefits administration, risk management outsourcing, and even the availability of professionally trained on-site HR representatives. Retirement Services: Offering full administration for retirement plans, which covers implementation, ongoing adherence to government regulations, reporting for both participants and employers, online access capabilities, electronic funds transfers, and other administrative tasks. Cloud-based HR Software: A suite of software products designed for efficient HR administration, including tools for benefits management, time and attendance tracking, digital communication, recruitment, and onboarding processes. Additional Business Services: This category features plan administration outsourcing, state unemployment insurance services, and various support functions for SMBs such as payroll funding and outsourcing (including payroll processing, invoicing, and tax preparation), payment processing solutions, financial wellness programs, and a resource center for small business loans. Insurance Offerings: Providing both property and casualty coverage, which includes workers' compensation, business-owner policies, cybersecurity protection, and commercial auto insurance, alongside health and benefits coverage like medical, dental, vision, and life insurance. Paychex primarily distributes its services through its dedicated direct sales team.
- Sector
- Industrials
- Industry
- Staffing & Employment Services
- CEO
- John Gibson Jr.