Paychex (PAYX) DCF: History & Chart

Paychex, Inc.(PAYX)

Staffing & Employment Services · Rochester, NY

$114.75-2.18 (-1.86%)

Delayed quote: Sep 9, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT

About Paychex, Inc.

Founded in 1971 and headquartered in Rochester, New York, Paychex, Inc. delivers comprehensive human capital management (HCM) solutions. The company primarily serves small to medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) across the United States, Europe, and India, addressing their needs in human resources, payroll administration, employee benefits, and insurance. Its diverse service portfolio includes: Payroll Management: Encompassing core payroll processing, payroll tax administration, employee payment facilitation, and ensuring compliance with regulations like new-hire reporting and garnishment processing. Human Resources Solutions: Providing support for employer compliance, HR and employee benefits administration, risk management outsourcing, and even the availability of professionally trained on-site HR representatives. Retirement Services: Offering full administration for retirement plans, which covers implementation, ongoing adherence to government regulations, reporting for both participants and employers, online access capabilities, electronic funds transfers, and other administrative tasks. Cloud-based HR Software: A suite of software products designed for efficient HR administration, including tools for benefits management, time and attendance tracking, digital communication, recruitment, and onboarding processes. Additional Business Services: This category features plan administration outsourcing, state unemployment insurance services, and various support functions for SMBs such as payroll funding and outsourcing (including payroll processing, invoicing, and tax preparation), payment processing solutions, financial wellness programs, and a resource center for small business loans. Insurance Offerings: Providing both property and casualty coverage, which includes workers' compensation, business-owner policies, cybersecurity protection, and commercial auto insurance, alongside health and benefits coverage like medical, dental, vision, and life insurance. Paychex primarily distributes its services through its dedicated direct sales team.

Rochester, NY

17,600 employees

www.paychex.com

Industrials / Staffing & Employment Services

Sector: Industrials
Industry: Staffing & Employment Services
CEO: John Gibson Jr.

View full financials

Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) DCF Valuation

Price is INSIDE the estimated range

$90.95

$176.70

Model scenario range

$114.75

Today's price

TGM's two-stage DCF values Paychex, Inc. (PAYX) between $90.95 and $176.70 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $124.91. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.2%) reflects its beta.

What would today's price require?

Growth the price assumes+10.7%/yr

Actual FCF growth, last 5 years+15.2%/yr

$114.75 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.2% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.

Scenario	FCF growth (fading to 2.5%)	Discount	Value / share
Conservative	9.6%/yr	9.2%	$90.95
Base case	12.6%/yr	8.2%	$124.91
Optimistic	15.6%/yr	7.2%	$176.70
Third-party model estimate (FMP)	independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided		$167.51

The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.

Price|PE Ratio|FCF Yield|All Metrics

Current Price

$114.75

Market-Implied Growth

+10.7%/yr

vs +15.2% 5Y actual

Model Scenario Range

$90.95 – $176.70

model output — not a price target

PAYX DCF Fair Value Calculator

Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PAYX (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.

FCF Growth Rate12.6%/yr

Historical FCF CAGR: 3Y 13.4% · 5Y 15.2% · 10Y 9.7%

Discount Rate (WACC)8.2%

Terminal Growth2.5%

Projection Years10yr

Base inputs: FCF $1.7B · 0.36B shares · net debt $3.4B

Estimated Fair Value

$124.91

+8.9% vs $114.75

Current price$114.75

Third-party model estimate (FMP)$167.51

Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth

How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 12.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $114.75; red = below. Your current case is outlined.

WACC ↓ / Terminal →	1.50%	2.00%	2.50%	3.00%	3.50%
6.2%	$161	$179	$201	$231	$272
7.2%	$130	$141	$155	$172	$194
8.2%	$108	$116	$125	$136	$149
9.2%	$91.61	$97.31	$104	$111	$120
10.2%	$79.20	$83.49	$88.32	$93.82	$100