Why we don't show a single “fair value” for PANW
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($144.00) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$335.10 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +48.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.7% | $83.68 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.7% | $110.30 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.7% | $144.00 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $52.35 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$335.10
Market-Implied Growth
+48.0%/yr
vs +25.3% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$110.30
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PANW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.9B · 0.81B shares · net cash $740.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$110.30
-67.1% vs $335.10
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $335.10; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $138 | $151 | $167 | $187 | $213 |
| 7.7% | $114 | $123 | $133 | $145 | $161 |
| 8.7% | $97.23 | $103 | $110 | $119 | $128 |
| 9.7% | $84.43 | $88.90 | $93.97 | $99.80 | $107 |
| 10.7% | $74.47 | $77.87 | $81.68 | $85.98 | $90.87 |
