Why we don't show a single “fair value” for PANW
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($145.87) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$318.65 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +46.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 9.7% | $85.56 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 8.7% | $112.18 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.7% | $145.87 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 27, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $116.36 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$318.65
Market-Implied Growth
+46.4%/yr
vs +25.3% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$112.18
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for PANW (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.9B · 0.81B shares · net cash $2.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$112.18
-64.8% vs $318.65
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $318.65; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.7% | $140 | $153 | $168 | $189 | $215 |
| 7.7% | $116 | $125 | $135 | $147 | $163 |
| 8.7% | $99.10 | $105 | $112 | $120 | $130 |
| 9.7% | $86.31 | $90.77 | $95.85 | $102 | $108 |
| 10.7% | $76.34 | $79.74 | $83.56 | $87.86 | $92.75 |
