Why we don't show a single “fair value” for P
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($47.96) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$108.33 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +47.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.2% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.2% | $31.74 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.2% | $39.36 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.2% | $47.96 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $16.28 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$108.33
Market-Implied Growth
+47.4%/yr
vs +19.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$39.36
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for P (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $568.0M · 0.33B shares · net cash $854.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$39.36
-63.7% vs $108.33
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $108.33; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.2% | $46.06 | $48.57 | $51.46 | $54.81 | $58.74 |
| 10.2% | $40.59 | $42.48 | $44.61 | $47.03 | $49.81 |
| 11.2% | $36.28 | $37.73 | $39.36 | $41.17 | $43.22 |
| 12.2% | $32.78 | $33.93 | $35.20 | $36.61 | $38.17 |
| 13.2% | $29.90 | $30.83 | $31.84 | $32.95 | $34.18 |
