Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY)'s fair value in a range of $90.79 – $105.71 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $56.55 sits below that range — by these conservative assumptions it screens as potentially undervalued.
Reverse DCF: at today's $56.55, the market is pricing in roughly -0.1%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +13.3%. The price assumes a slowdown from its track record — a potential value signal if growth holds.
Current Price
$56.55
Fair-Value Range
$90.79 – $105.71
Market-Implied Growth
-0.1%/yr
vs +13.3% 5Y actual
OXY DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $6.8B · 0.99B shares · net debt $20.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$90.79
+60.5% vs $56.55
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $56.55; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $118 | $125 | $133 | $143 | $156 |
| 9.0% | $98.31 | $103 | $109 | $115 | $123 |
| 10.0% | $83.42 | $86.88 | $90.79 | $95.26 | $100 |
| 11.0% | $71.72 | $74.25 | $77.08 | $80.27 | $83.87 |
| 12.0% | $62.29 | $64.19 | $66.29 | $68.63 | $71.24 |
About Occidental Petroleum Corporation
Occidental Petroleum Corporation, along with its various subsidiaries, primarily focuses on the discovery, acquisition, and development of oil and natural gas resources. These operations extend across the United States, the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America. The company's business is organized into three distinct divisions: Oil and Gas, Chemical, and Midstream and Marketing. Within the Oil and Gas division, the company is responsible for exploring, developing, and extracting crude oil, condensate, natural gas liquids (NGLs), and conventional natural gas. The Chemical segment manufactures and commercializes a range of fundamental chemicals, including chlorine, caustic soda, chlorinated organic compounds, potassium-based chemicals, ethylene dichloride, chlorinated isocyanurates, sodium silicates, and calcium chloride. This segment also produces vinyl products such as vinyl chloride monomer, polyvinyl chloride, and ethylene. The Midstream and Marketing division manages the collection, processing, transportation, storage, procurement, and distribution of diverse energy commodities, specifically oil, condensate, NGLs, natural gas, carbon dioxide, and electrical power. Furthermore, this segment actively trades utilizing its existing transportation and storage assets and strategically invests in other entities. Occidental Petroleum Corporation was established in 1920 and maintains its principal offices in Houston, Texas.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
- CEO
- Vicki A. Hollub