TGM's two-stage DCF values Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) between $87.13 and $189.92 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $126.69. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$57.30 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -4.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 6.8%/yr | 8.5% | $87.13 |
| Base case | 9.8%/yr | 7.5% | $126.69 |
| Optimistic | 12.8%/yr | 6.5% | $189.92 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $102.88 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$57.30
Market-Implied Growth
-4.9%/yr
vs +13.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$87.13 – $189.92
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for OXY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.2B · 0.99B shares · net debt $20.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$126.69
+121.1% vs $57.30
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 9.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $57.30; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $172 | $196 | $228 | $274 | $342 |
| 6.5% | $132 | $147 | $165 | $188 | $219 |
| 7.5% | $106 | $115 | $127 | $141 | $158 |
| 8.5% | $86.76 | $93.49 | $101 | $111 | $122 |
| 9.5% | $72.69 | $77.63 | $83.26 | $89.74 | $97.30 |
