TGM's two-stage DCF values Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY) between $64.18 and $144.46 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $95.07. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$60.65 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -4.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.1%/yr | 8.5% | $64.18 |
| Base case | 4.1%/yr | 7.5% | $95.07 |
| Optimistic | 7.1%/yr | 6.5% | $144.46 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $99.46 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$60.65
Market-Implied Growth
-4.0%/yr
vs +3.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$64.18 – $144.46
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for OXY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.2B · 0.99B shares · net debt $20.6B
Estimated Fair Value
$95.07
+56.8% vs $60.65
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $60.65; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $129 | $148 | $173 | $208 | $260 |
| 6.5% | $99.07 | $110 | $124 | $142 | $166 |
| 7.5% | $78.87 | $86.24 | $95.07 | $106 | $119 |
| 8.5% | $64.45 | $69.62 | $75.64 | $82.74 | $91.26 |
| 9.5% | $53.64 | $57.43 | $61.76 | $66.74 | $72.55 |
