TGM's two-stage DCF values Otis Worldwide Corporation (OTIS) between $32.08 and $67.55 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $44.41. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$68.70 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.5% | $32.08 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.5% | $44.41 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.5% | $67.55 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $79.55 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$68.70
Market-Implied Growth
+9.8%/yr
vs +1.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$32.08 – $67.55
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for OTIS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.4B · 0.38B shares · net debt $7.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$44.41
-35.4% vs $68.70
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $68.70; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $59.66 | $66.95 | $76.05 | $87.73 | $103 |
| 7.5% | $46.51 | $51.31 | $57.06 | $64.09 | $72.86 |
| 8.5% | $37.12 | $40.48 | $44.41 | $49.03 | $54.58 |
| 9.5% | $30.07 | $32.54 | $35.36 | $38.61 | $42.40 |
| 10.5% | $24.59 | $26.47 | $28.58 | $30.97 | $33.69 |
