TGM's two-stage DCF values Otis Worldwide Corporation (OTIS) between $31.37 and $65.83 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $43.37. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$72.19 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +11.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.6% | $31.37 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.6% | $43.37 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.6% | $65.83 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 3, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $85.64 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$72.19
Market-Implied Growth
+11.2%/yr
vs +1.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$31.37 – $65.83
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for OTIS (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.4B · 0.38B shares · net debt $7.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$43.37
-39.9% vs $72.19
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $72.19; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.6% | $58.11 | $65.08 | $73.73 | $84.78 | $99.37 |
| 7.6% | $45.43 | $50.05 | $55.57 | $62.29 | $70.63 |
| 8.6% | $36.32 | $39.58 | $43.37 | $47.82 | $53.15 |
| 9.6% | $29.46 | $31.86 | $34.60 | $37.74 | $41.40 |
| 10.6% | $24.11 | $25.94 | $27.99 | $30.31 | $32.95 |
