Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) between $50.49 and $72.98 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $61.10. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$28.40 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -7.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $50.49 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $61.10 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $72.98 |
Current Price
$28.40
Market-Implied Growth
-7.2%/yr
vs +73.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$50.49 – $72.98
model output — not a price target
OSCR DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for OSCR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $650.8M · 0.26B shares · net cash $2.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$94.16
+231.5% vs $28.40
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $28.40; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $115 | $120 | $125 | $132 | $139 |
| 10.5% | $100 | $104 | $108 | $112 | $117 |
| 11.5% | $88.68 | $91.27 | $94.16 | $97.38 | $101 |
| 12.5% | $79.32 | $81.29 | $83.45 | $85.85 | $88.51 |
| 13.5% | $71.64 | $73.17 | $74.83 | $76.65 | $78.65 |
About Oscar Health, Inc.
Oscar Health, Inc. operates as a health insurance provider across the United States. Its offerings include various health plans such as those for individuals and families, small businesses, and Medicare Advantage options. The company also features "+Oscar," a proprietary technology platform designed to facilitate engagement between healthcare providers, payers, and their members or patients. Additionally, Oscar Health provides reinsurance solutions. Originally established as Mulberry Health Inc., the firm officially changed its name to Oscar Health, Inc. in January 2021. It was founded in 2012 and maintains its main office in New York, New York.
- Sector
- Healthcare
- Industry
- Medical - Healthcare Plans
- CEO
- Mark Thomas Bertolini