TGM's two-stage DCF values Oscar Health, Inc. (OSCR) between $50.49 and $72.98 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $61.10. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$30.11 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -5.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $50.49 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $61.10 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $72.98 |
Current Price
$30.11
Market-Implied Growth
-5.1%/yr
vs +73.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$50.49 – $72.98
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for OSCR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $650.8M · 0.26B shares · net cash $2.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$61.10
+102.9% vs $30.11
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $30.11; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $70.30 | $73.68 | $77.53 | $81.98 | $87.15 |
| 10.5% | $62.84 | $65.40 | $68.27 | $71.53 | $75.24 |
| 11.5% | $56.90 | $58.89 | $61.10 | $63.57 | $66.34 |
| 12.5% | $52.07 | $53.65 | $55.39 | $57.31 | $59.44 |
| 13.5% | $48.06 | $49.34 | $50.74 | $52.27 | $53.94 |
