Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ONTO
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($82.22) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$287.60 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +55.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.5%/yr | 12.5% | $54.10 |
| Base case | 11.5%/yr | 11.5% | $66.06 |
| Optimistic | 14.5%/yr | 10.5% | $82.22 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 4, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $65.85 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$287.60
Market-Implied Growth
+55.1%/yr
vs +11.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$66.06
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ONTO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $181.6M · 0.05B shares · net cash $346.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$66.06
-77.0% vs $287.60
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $287.60; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $76.12 | $79.81 | $84.02 | $88.88 | $94.53 |
| 10.5% | $67.96 | $70.76 | $73.91 | $77.46 | $81.52 |
| 11.5% | $61.46 | $63.64 | $66.06 | $68.76 | $71.79 |
| 12.5% | $56.15 | $57.89 | $59.80 | $61.90 | $64.23 |
| 13.5% | $51.74 | $53.15 | $54.69 | $56.36 | $58.20 |
