Onto Innovation Inc. (ONTO) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ONTO
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($82.16) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$333.76 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +59.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.5%/yr | 12.5% | $54.07 |
| Base case | 11.5%/yr | 11.5% | $66.01 |
| Optimistic | 14.5%/yr | 10.5% | $82.16 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $64.22 | |
Current Price
$333.76
Market-Implied Growth
+59.7%/yr
vs +11.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$66.01
model output — not a price target
ONTO DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ONTO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $181.6M · 0.05B shares · net cash $346.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$85.04
-74.5% vs $333.76
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $333.76; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $103 | $107 | $111 | $117 | $123 |
| 10.5% | $90.38 | $93.26 | $96.51 | $100 | $104 |
| 11.5% | $80.51 | $82.66 | $85.04 | $87.70 | $90.69 |
| 12.5% | $72.53 | $74.16 | $75.95 | $77.92 | $80.12 |
| 13.5% | $65.95 | $67.21 | $68.58 | $70.08 | $71.73 |
About Onto Innovation Inc.
Onto Innovation Inc. is a global leader in designing, manufacturing, and supporting cutting-edge process control solutions. The company's diverse portfolio encompasses tools for macro defect inspection, 2D/3D optical metrology, and lithography systems, alongside sophisticated analytical software for process control. These offerings are crucial for optimizing manufacturing processes, enhancing yield, and facilitating device packaging and testing in various industries worldwide. Their solutions are delivered both as standalone systems for specialized functions—such as detecting large flaws, performing packaging lithography, evaluating probe cards, and measuring transparent and opaque thin films—and through an extensive suite of process control software. This software scales from individual tool management to enterprise-wide factory integration. Beyond hardware and software, Onto Innovation also provides essential spare parts and software licensing services. Their technology is vital to a broad spectrum of clients, including manufacturers of semiconductors, advanced packaging, silicon wafers, LEDs, VCSELs, MEMS, CMOS image sensors, power devices, RF filters, and data storage products, as well as those in various industrial and scientific fields. Originally established in 1940 as Rudolph Technologies, Inc., Onto Innovation Inc. maintains its headquarters in Wilmington, Massachusetts.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Semiconductors
- CEO
- Michael Plisinski