Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ONTO
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($87.96) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$263.43 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +52.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 10.4%/yr | 12.5% | $57.64 |
| Base case | 13.4%/yr | 11.5% | $70.53 |
| Optimistic | 16.4%/yr | 10.5% | $87.96 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $61.68 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$263.43
Market-Implied Growth
+52.4%/yr
vs +15.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$70.53
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ONTO (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $181.6M · 0.05B shares · net cash $346.1M
Estimated Fair Value
$70.53
-73.2% vs $263.43
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 13.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $263.43; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $81.48 | $85.50 | $90.08 | $95.36 | $102 |
| 10.5% | $72.60 | $75.65 | $79.07 | $82.94 | $87.36 |
| 11.5% | $65.53 | $67.90 | $70.53 | $73.47 | $76.76 |
| 12.5% | $59.76 | $61.65 | $63.72 | $66.01 | $68.55 |
| 13.5% | $54.97 | $56.50 | $58.17 | $59.99 | $61.99 |
