TGM's two-stage DCF values ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) between $63.56 and $161.90 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $105.19. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$96.28 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +16.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.7% | $63.56 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.7% | $105.19 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.7% | $161.90 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $232.84 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$96.28
Market-Implied Growth
+16.6%/yr
vs +18.1% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$63.56 – $161.90
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for OKE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.6B · 0.63B shares · net debt $32.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$105.19
+9.3% vs $96.28
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $96.28; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | $153 | $178 | $210 | $255 | $320 |
| 6.7% | $111 | $126 | $145 | $169 | $201 |
| 7.7% | $82.87 | $93.06 | $105 | $120 | $138 |
| 8.7% | $62.65 | $69.85 | $78.20 | $88.01 | $99.69 |
| 9.7% | $47.43 | $52.74 | $58.78 | $65.71 | $73.75 |
