TGM's two-stage DCF values ONEOK, Inc. (OKE) between $63.58 and $161.93 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $105.21. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$93.16 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +16.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 8.7% | $63.58 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 7.7% | $105.21 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 6.7% | $161.93 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $244.08 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$93.16
Market-Implied Growth
+16.0%/yr
vs +30.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$63.58 – $161.93
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for OKE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.6B · 0.63B shares · net debt $32.7B
Estimated Fair Value
$105.21
+12.9% vs $93.16
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $93.16; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.7% | $153 | $178 | $210 | $255 | $320 |
| 6.7% | $111 | $126 | $145 | $169 | $201 |
| 7.7% | $82.88 | $93.07 | $105 | $120 | $138 |
| 8.7% | $62.66 | $69.86 | $78.21 | $88.02 | $99.71 |
| 9.7% | $47.43 | $52.75 | $58.79 | $65.72 | $73.77 |
