TGM's two-stage DCF values Oddity Tech Ltd. (ODD) between $20.77 and $33.78 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $26.91. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$13.29 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +2.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $20.77 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $26.91 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $33.78 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $57.57 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$13.29
Market-Implied Growth
+2.4%/yr
vs +48.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$20.77 – $33.78
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ODD (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $82.7M · 0.06B shares · net debt $182.2M
Estimated Fair Value
$26.91
+102.5% vs $13.29
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $13.29; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $32.23 | $34.19 | $36.41 | $38.98 | $41.98 |
| 10.5% | $27.92 | $29.40 | $31.06 | $32.94 | $35.09 |
| 11.5% | $24.48 | $25.63 | $26.91 | $28.34 | $29.94 |
| 12.5% | $21.69 | $22.60 | $23.61 | $24.72 | $25.95 |
| 13.5% | $19.37 | $20.11 | $20.92 | $21.80 | $22.77 |
