Nextpower Inc. (NXT) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Nextpower Inc. (NXT) between $58.60 and $86.44 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $71.74. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$106.95 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +29.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $58.60 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $71.74 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $86.44 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $97.66 | |
Current Price
$106.95
Market-Implied Growth
+29.8%/yr
vs +24.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$58.60 – $86.44
model output — not a price target
NXT DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NXT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $467.0M · 0.15B shares · net cash $1.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$112.66
+5.3% vs $106.95
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $106.95; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $139 | $145 | $151 | $159 | $168 |
| 10.5% | $120 | $125 | $129 | $135 | $141 |
| 11.5% | $106 | $109 | $113 | $117 | $121 |
| 12.5% | $94.29 | $96.72 | $99.41 | $102 | $106 |
| 13.5% | $84.79 | $86.67 | $88.73 | $90.98 | $93.46 |
About Nextpower Inc.
Nextpower Inc. provides solar tracker technologies and solutions for utility-scale and distributed generation solar applications in the United States and internationally. The company offers tracking solutions, including NX Horizon, a solar tracking solution; NX Horizon-XTR, a terrain-following tracker to expand the addressable market for trackers on sites with sloped, uneven, and challenging terrain; NX Horizon Hail Pro adds automatic stowing using weather service information; and NX Horizon Low Carbon, a solar tracker solution with a reduced carbon footprint. It also provides TrueCapture, an energy yield management system that addresses power production shortfalls; NX Anchor, a solar tracker foundation system to facilitate solar project development in challenging soil conditions; NX Truss Driver, an advanced installation equipment; and NX Navigator, which assists solar power plant owners and operators in monitoring, controlling, and protecting their solar projects. The company serves engineering, procurement, and construction firms, as well as solar project developers and owners. Nextpower Inc. was formerly known as Nextracker Inc. and changed its name to Nextpower Inc. in November 2025. The company was founded in 2013 and is headquartered in Fremont, California.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Consumer Electronics
- CEO
- Daniel S. Shugar