TGM's two-stage DCF values Nextpower Inc. (NXT) between $57.99 and $85.57 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $71.01. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$104.88 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +29.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 12.5% | $57.99 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 11.5% | $71.01 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 10.5% | $85.57 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $83.73 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$104.88
Market-Implied Growth
+29.5%/yr
vs +23.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$57.99 – $85.57
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NXT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $467.0M · 0.15B shares · net cash $1.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$71.01
-32.3% vs $104.88
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $104.88; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $82.29 | $86.44 | $91.16 | $96.61 | $103 |
| 10.5% | $73.14 | $76.28 | $79.80 | $83.79 | $88.35 |
| 11.5% | $65.85 | $68.30 | $71.01 | $74.03 | $77.43 |
| 12.5% | $59.92 | $61.86 | $64.00 | $66.35 | $68.97 |
| 13.5% | $55.00 | $56.58 | $58.29 | $60.17 | $62.23 |
