Why we don't show a single “fair value” for NXPI
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($134.45) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$269.24 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +29.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.9%/yr | 12.5% | $71.23 |
| Base case | 7.9%/yr | 11.5% | $98.11 |
| Optimistic | 10.9%/yr | 10.5% | $134.45 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $71.84 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$269.24
Market-Implied Growth
+29.8%/yr
vs +8.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$98.11
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NXPI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.4B · 0.25B shares · net debt $9.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$98.11
-63.6% vs $269.24
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $269.24; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $120 | $128 | $138 | $148 | $161 |
| 10.5% | $102 | $109 | $115 | $123 | $132 |
| 11.5% | $87.95 | $92.77 | $98.11 | $104 | $111 |
| 12.5% | $76.20 | $80.05 | $84.26 | $88.91 | $94.07 |
| 13.5% | $66.44 | $69.56 | $72.95 | $76.66 | $80.73 |
