TGM's two-stage DCF values NXP Semiconductors N.V. (NXPI) between $66.08 and $126.12 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $91.61. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (11.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$223.87 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +25.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.6%/yr | 12.5% | $66.08 |
| Base case | 6.6%/yr | 11.5% | $91.61 |
| Optimistic | 9.6%/yr | 10.5% | $126.12 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $72.64 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$223.87
Market-Implied Growth
+25.4%/yr
vs +6.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$66.08 – $126.12
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NXPI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.4B · 0.25B shares · net debt $9.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$91.61
-59.1% vs $223.87
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $223.87; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $113 | $120 | $129 | $139 | $151 |
| 10.5% | $95.60 | $101 | $108 | $115 | $124 |
| 11.5% | $82.02 | $86.57 | $91.61 | $97.24 | $104 |
| 12.5% | $70.94 | $74.56 | $78.54 | $82.93 | $87.80 |
| 13.5% | $61.71 | $64.66 | $67.86 | $71.36 | $75.21 |
