TGM's two-stage DCF values NIKE, Inc. (NKE) between $31.45 and $50.23 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $38.10. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$41.70 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +4.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.7% | $31.45 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.7% | $38.10 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.7% | $50.23 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $49.97 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$41.70
Market-Implied Growth
+4.2%/yr
vs +0.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$31.45 – $50.23
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NKE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.1B · 1.48B shares · net debt $379.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$38.10
-8.6% vs $41.70
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $41.70; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | $45.73 | $48.96 | $52.80 | $57.46 | $63.21 |
| 8.7% | $39.33 | $41.61 | $44.27 | $47.38 | $51.08 |
| 9.7% | $34.49 | $36.18 | $38.10 | $40.31 | $42.87 |
| 10.7% | $30.70 | $31.99 | $33.44 | $35.07 | $36.93 |
| 11.7% | $27.65 | $28.67 | $29.79 | $31.04 | $32.43 |
