TGM's two-stage DCF values NIKE, Inc. (NKE) between $31.84 and $51.07 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $38.64. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$38.10 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +1.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.6% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 10.6% | $31.84 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 9.6% | $38.64 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 8.6% | $51.07 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $51.91 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$38.10
Market-Implied Growth
+1.7%/yr
vs +0.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$31.84 – $51.07
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NKE (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $4.1B · 1.48B shares · net debt $379.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$38.64
+1.4% vs $38.10
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $38.10; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $46.49 | $49.84 | $53.84 | $58.71 | $64.75 |
| 8.6% | $39.89 | $42.25 | $44.99 | $48.22 | $52.08 |
| 9.6% | $34.92 | $36.66 | $38.64 | $40.92 | $43.57 |
| 10.6% | $31.04 | $32.36 | $33.85 | $35.53 | $37.45 |
| 11.6% | $27.93 | $28.97 | $30.12 | $31.40 | $32.83 |
