NIKE, Inc. (NKE) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put NIKE, Inc. (NKE)'s fair value in a range of $47.92 – $52.85 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $44.07 sits below that range — by these conservative assumptions it screens as potentially undervalued.
Reverse DCF: at today's $44.07, the market is pricing in roughly +2.5%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of -22.9%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$44.07
Fair-Value Range
$47.92 – $52.85
Market-Implied Growth
+2.5%/yr
vs -22.9% 5Y actual
NKE DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $4.8B · 1.48B shares · net debt $502.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$52.85
+19.9% vs $44.06
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $44.06; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $65.76 | $69.15 | $73.15 | $77.96 | $83.84 |
| 9.0% | $56.44 | $58.75 | $61.43 | $64.55 | $68.23 |
| 10.0% | $49.33 | $50.98 | $52.85 | $54.98 | $57.45 |
| 11.0% | $43.75 | $44.96 | $46.31 | $47.83 | $49.55 |
| 12.0% | $39.25 | $40.16 | $41.16 | $42.27 | $43.52 |
About NIKE, Inc.
NIKE, Inc., through its various subsidiaries, operates as a global enterprise focused on the design, development, marketing, and sale of athletic footwear, apparel, equipment, and accessories for all ages and genders. Beyond its primary offerings, the company provides a range of athletic and casual footwear, clothing, and accessories under the notable Jumpman trademark. It also distributes a variety of casual sneakers, apparel, and accessories, featuring well-known brands like Converse, Chuck Taylor, All Star, One Star, Star Chevron, and Jack Purcell. Under the NIKE brand itself, the company supplies a comprehensive line of performance sports gear and accessories, such as bags, socks, sports balls, eyewear, timepieces, digital devices, bats, gloves, and protective equipment. Additionally, NIKE sells various plastic products to other manufacturers. The company also markets sportswear adorned with licensed logos from college and professional sports teams and leagues. Furthermore, it engages in licensing arrangements, allowing unaffiliated parties to manufacture and sell apparel, digital devices, applications, and other sports equipment under NIKE-owned trademarks. Its extensive product catalog reaches consumers globally through diverse channels, including specialized footwear, sporting goods, athletic specialty, department, skate, tennis, and golf stores. Distribution occurs via NIKE's proprietary retail outlets, digital e-commerce platforms, independent distributors, authorized licensees, and sales representatives. Founded in 1964, the company was originally named Blue Ribbon Sports, Inc., before officially becoming NIKE, Inc. in 1971, and maintains its corporate headquarters in Beaverton, Oregon.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Apparel - Footwear & Accessories
- CEO
- Elliott J. Hill