TGM's two-stage DCF values Nordson Corporation (NDSN) between $106.60 and $214.29 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $150.31. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$310.62 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.8%/yr | 10.0% | $106.60 |
| Base case | 6.8%/yr | 9.0% | $150.31 |
| Optimistic | 9.8%/yr | 8.0% | $214.29 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 5, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $217.78 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$310.62
Market-Implied Growth
+22.4%/yr
vs +8.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$106.60 – $214.29
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NDSN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $549.2M · 0.06B shares · net debt $2.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$150.31
-51.6% vs $310.62
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.8%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $310.62; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $193 | $212 | $235 | $264 | $302 |
| 8.0% | $157 | $170 | $185 | $203 | $226 |
| 9.0% | $130 | $140 | $150 | $163 | $178 |
| 10.0% | $110 | $117 | $125 | $134 | $144 |
| 11.0% | $94.21 | $99.58 | $106 | $112 | $120 |
