TGM's two-stage DCF values Nordson Corporation (NDSN) between $101.48 and $205.13 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $143.55. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$311.57 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +22.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 2.9%/yr | 10.0% | $101.48 |
| Base case | 5.9%/yr | 9.0% | $143.55 |
| Optimistic | 8.9%/yr | 8.0% | $205.13 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $198.12 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$311.57
Market-Implied Growth
+22.5%/yr
vs +6.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$101.48 – $205.13
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for NDSN (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $549.2M · 0.06B shares · net debt $2.0B
Estimated Fair Value
$143.55
-53.9% vs $311.57
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $311.57; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.0% | $184 | $202 | $225 | $253 | $289 |
| 8.0% | $150 | $162 | $177 | $194 | $216 |
| 9.0% | $124 | $133 | $144 | $156 | $170 |
| 10.0% | $105 | $112 | $119 | $128 | $138 |
| 11.0% | $89.74 | $94.89 | $101 | $107 | $114 |
