TGM's two-stage DCF values Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) between $30.33 and $57.99 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $41.92. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$38.77 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +4.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.5% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.2%/yr | 11.5% | $30.33 |
| Base case | 6.2%/yr | 10.5% | $41.92 |
| Optimistic | 9.2%/yr | 9.5% | $57.99 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 27, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $78.62 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$38.77
Market-Implied Growth
+4.7%/yr
vs +5.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$30.33 – $57.99
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MTCH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $855.8M · 0.23B shares · net debt $2.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$41.92
+8.1% vs $38.77
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $38.77; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.5% | $51.97 | $55.94 | $60.56 | $66.02 | $72.57 |
| 9.5% | $43.67 | $46.58 | $49.91 | $53.73 | $58.19 |
| 10.5% | $37.23 | $39.44 | $41.92 | $44.73 | $47.93 |
| 11.5% | $32.08 | $33.80 | $35.72 | $37.85 | $40.24 |
| 12.5% | $27.87 | $29.25 | $30.76 | $32.42 | $34.27 |
