Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) between $29.90 and $57.03 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $41.28. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$34.57 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +2.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.2%/yr | 11.6% | $29.90 |
| Base case | 6.2%/yr | 10.6% | $41.28 |
| Optimistic | 9.2%/yr | 9.6% | $57.03 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $83.47 | |
Current Price
$34.57
Market-Implied Growth
+2.9%/yr
vs +5.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$29.90 – $57.03
model output — not a price target
MTCH DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MTCH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $855.8M · 0.23B shares · net debt $2.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$47.85
+38.4% vs $34.57
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $34.57; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $61.83 | $65.23 | $69.18 | $73.85 | $79.43 |
| 9.6% | $51.89 | $54.28 | $57.00 | $60.13 | $63.77 |
| 10.6% | $44.19 | $45.91 | $47.85 | $50.05 | $52.56 |
| 11.6% | $38.04 | $39.32 | $40.75 | $42.34 | $44.13 |
| 12.6% | $33.03 | $34.01 | $35.08 | $36.27 | $37.58 |
About Match Group, Inc.
Match Group, Inc. is a global leader specializing in the provision of online dating and relationship services. Its extensive portfolio encompasses prominent platforms such as Tinder, Match, Meetic, OkCupid, Hinge, Pairs, PlentyOfFish, and OurTime, in addition to a variety of other niche applications. Founded in 1986, the company's base of operations is located in Dallas, Texas.
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Internet Content & Information
- CEO
- Spencer Rascoff