TGM's two-stage DCF values Match Group, Inc. (MTCH) between $30.02 and $57.24 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $41.44. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$41.82 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +6.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.6% required return — about in line with its track record.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.3%/yr | 11.6% | $30.02 |
| Base case | 6.3%/yr | 10.6% | $41.44 |
| Optimistic | 9.3%/yr | 9.6% | $57.24 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $71.95 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$41.82
Market-Implied Growth
+6.5%/yr
vs +7.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$30.02 – $57.24
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MTCH (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $855.8M · 0.23B shares · net debt $2.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$41.44
-0.9% vs $41.82
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $41.82; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $51.30 | $55.15 | $59.64 | $64.92 | $71.23 |
| 9.6% | $43.18 | $46.02 | $49.26 | $52.98 | $57.30 |
| 10.6% | $36.85 | $39.02 | $41.44 | $44.19 | $47.31 |
| 11.6% | $31.79 | $33.48 | $35.36 | $37.45 | $39.79 |
| 12.6% | $27.65 | $29.00 | $30.48 | $32.11 | $33.92 |
