TGM's two-stage DCF values Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) between $37.74 and $71.76 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $50.83. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$93.49 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +27.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.7%/yr | 8.5% | $37.74 |
| Base case | 11.7%/yr | 7.5% | $50.83 |
| Optimistic | 14.7%/yr | 6.5% | $71.76 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $67.60 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$93.49
Market-Implied Growth
+27.4%/yr
vs +10.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$37.74 – $71.76
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MNST (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 0.98B shares · net cash $2.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$50.83
-45.6% vs $93.49
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.7%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $93.49; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $65.79 | $73.89 | $84.70 | $99.81 | $122 |
| 6.5% | $52.58 | $57.45 | $63.52 | $71.32 | $81.72 |
| 7.5% | $43.80 | $47.00 | $50.83 | $55.51 | $61.36 |
| 8.5% | $37.54 | $39.78 | $42.39 | $45.47 | $49.17 |
| 9.5% | $32.86 | $34.51 | $36.38 | $38.54 | $41.05 |
