TGM's two-stage DCF values Monster Beverage Corporation (MNST) between $17.73 and $33.63 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $23.85. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$42.47 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +24.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.1%/yr | 8.5% | $17.73 |
| Base case | 10.1%/yr | 7.5% | $23.85 |
| Optimistic | 13.1%/yr | 6.5% | $33.63 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $32.88 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$42.47
Market-Implied Growth
+24.9%/yr
vs +7.9% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$17.73 – $33.63
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MNST (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 1.96B shares · net cash $2.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$23.85
-43.8% vs $42.47
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $42.47; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $30.79 | $34.56 | $39.58 | $46.61 | $57.14 |
| 6.5% | $24.66 | $26.92 | $29.74 | $33.37 | $38.20 |
| 7.5% | $20.58 | $22.06 | $23.85 | $26.02 | $28.74 |
| 8.5% | $17.67 | $18.71 | $19.92 | $21.36 | $23.07 |
| 9.5% | $15.49 | $16.25 | $17.13 | $18.13 | $19.30 |