Why we don't show a single “fair value” for MLM
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($167.89) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$550.79 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +35.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 1.5%/yr | 10.6% | $62.42 |
| Base case | 4.5%/yr | 9.6% | $105.85 |
| Optimistic | 7.5%/yr | 8.6% | $167.89 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 4, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $468.34 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$550.79
Market-Implied Growth
+35.4%/yr
vs +2.4% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$105.85
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MLM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $741.0M · 0.06B shares · net debt $5.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$105.85
-80.8% vs $550.79
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 4.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $550.79; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $146 | $162 | $183 | $207 | $238 |
| 8.6% | $112 | $124 | $138 | $154 | $174 |
| 9.6% | $87.05 | $95.84 | $106 | $117 | $131 |
| 10.6% | $67.49 | $74.18 | $81.69 | $90.17 | $99.82 |
| 11.6% | $51.82 | $57.05 | $62.85 | $69.31 | $76.56 |
