Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. (MLM) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for MLM
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($188.27) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$609.12 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +37.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.4%/yr | 10.6% | $74.14 |
| Base case | 6.4%/yr | 9.6% | $121.13 |
| Optimistic | 9.4%/yr | 8.6% | $188.27 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $476.38 | |
Current Price
$609.12
Market-Implied Growth
+37.8%/yr
vs +6.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$121.13
model output — not a price target
MLM DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MLM (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $741.0M · 0.06B shares · net debt $5.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$150.16
-75.3% vs $609.12
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $609.12; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $212 | $229 | $250 | $276 | $307 |
| 8.6% | $167 | $178 | $192 | $208 | $227 |
| 9.6% | $133 | $141 | $150 | $161 | $173 |
| 10.6% | $106 | $112 | $119 | $126 | $135 |
| 11.6% | $85.24 | $89.65 | $94.54 | $100.00 | $106 |
About Martin Marietta Materials, Inc.
Martin Marietta Materials, Inc. functions as a company specializing in natural resource-derived building materials. This enterprise delivers a wide range of aggregates and other heavy construction components to the building industry, serving both domestic and international markets. Its product portfolio includes foundational raw materials like crushed stone, sand, and gravel, in addition to manufactured items such as ready-mix concrete, asphalt, and comprehensive paving solutions. These offerings are essential for infrastructure projects, commercial and residential developments, and various other sectors including railroads, agriculture, utilities, and environmental applications. Beyond its core construction offerings, Martin Marietta also produces magnesia-based chemicals, which are utilized in industrial, agricultural, and environmental contexts. The company further supplies dolomitic lime, primarily for steel manufacturing and soil stabilization. Its broader chemical products contribute to areas such as flame retardants, wastewater treatment, and pulp and paper production, among other environmental uses. Established in 1939, the firm's main office is situated in Raleigh, North Carolina.
- Sector
- Basic Materials
- Industry
- Construction Materials
- CEO
- C. Howard Nye