MKS Inc. (MKSI) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for MKSI
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($57.26) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$410.31 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +56.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 7.4%/yr | 12.5% | $15.06 |
| Base case | 10.4%/yr | 11.5% | $33.00 |
| Optimistic | 13.4%/yr | 10.5% | $57.26 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $44.82 | |
Current Price
$410.31
Market-Implied Growth
+56.8%/yr
vs +10.3% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$33.00
model output — not a price target
MKSI DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MKSI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $387.5M · 0.07B shares · net debt $3.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$57.67
-85.9% vs $410.31
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 10.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $410.31; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $83.18 | $88.86 | $95.35 | $103 | $112 |
| 10.5% | $65.36 | $69.46 | $74.08 | $79.32 | $85.30 |
| 11.5% | $51.24 | $54.29 | $57.67 | $61.46 | $65.72 |
| 12.5% | $39.80 | $42.11 | $44.66 | $47.47 | $50.60 |
| 13.5% | $30.36 | $32.15 | $34.10 | $36.24 | $38.59 |
About MKS Inc.
MKS Inc. (MKSI) functions as a worldwide supplier of sophisticated instruments, integrated systems, specialized components, and advanced process control solutions. The company's products are engineered to precisely measure, observe, deliver, evaluate, energize, and regulate essential operational factors within diverse manufacturing environments across the globe. Its offerings are categorized into three primary divisions: 1. Vacuum & Analysis: This segment provides cutting-edge solutions for managing pressure and vacuum, featuring both direct and indirect pressure sensing devices. It also offers material handling technologies, including flow and valve systems, alongside integrated pressure measurement and control subsystems designed for meticulous process regulation. Furthermore, it supplies power delivery apparatus such as microwave, radio frequency matching networks, and metrology tools, which are crucial for supplying energy to etching, stripping, and deposition procedures. Plasma and reactive gas products also fall under this division. 2. Light & Motion: Concentrating on light-based technologies, this unit features a broad spectrum of laser products, encompassing continuous wave, pulsed nanosecond, diode, diode-pumped solid-state, and fiber lasers. Its photonics portfolio includes motion control systems, optical tables with vibration isolation platforms, a variety of photonic instruments, precision optics and optical assemblies, opto-mechanical parts, temperature sensing devices vital for wafer fabrication, and laser/LED measurement equipment like power/energy meters, beam profilers, and optical/photonic subsystems. 3. Equipment & Solutions: This division specializes in laser-driven systems for printed circuit board (PCB) manufacturing. Its offerings cover flexible interconnect PCB processing and high-density interconnect solutions for rigid PCB production and substrate preparation. Additionally, it provides test systems for multi-layer ceramic capacitors. MKS Inc. serves a wide array of sectors, including semiconductor manufacturing, industrial technologies, life and health sciences, academic research, and defense. The company distributes its products and services through its internal sales team, independent distributors, sales representatives, and directly via its online platforms and product catalogs. Founded in 1961, MKS Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Andover, Massachusetts.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Hardware, Equipment & Parts
- CEO
- John T. C. Lee