Why we don't show a single “fair value” for MKSI
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($41.40) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$294.38 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +48.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 11.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 3.5%/yr | 12.5% | $5.28 |
| Base case | 6.5%/yr | 11.5% | $20.64 |
| Optimistic | 9.5%/yr | 10.5% | $41.40 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $48.85 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$294.38
Market-Implied Growth
+48.2%/yr
vs +3.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$20.64
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MKSI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $387.5M · 0.07B shares · net debt $3.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$20.64
-93.0% vs $294.38
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 6.5%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $294.38; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9.5% | $33.26 | $37.87 | $43.14 | $49.21 | $56.28 |
| 10.5% | $23.04 | $26.54 | $30.48 | $34.93 | $40.02 |
| 11.5% | $14.88 | $17.61 | $20.64 | $24.02 | $27.82 |
| 12.5% | $8.21 | $10.39 | $12.78 | $15.42 | $18.35 |
| 13.5% | $2.66 | $4.43 | $6.36 | $8.47 | $10.78 |
