Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)
Internet Content & Information · Menlo Park, CA
$653.69+40.21 (+6.55%)
Delayed quote: Sep 9, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
Internet Content & Information · Menlo Park, CA
Delayed quote: Sep 9, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
TGM's two-stage DCF values Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) between $312.10 and $526.35 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $401.55. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$653.69 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +29.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.3% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 13.9%/yr | 11.3% | $312.10 |
| Base case | 16.9%/yr | 10.3% | $401.55 |
| Optimistic | 19.9%/yr | 9.3% | $526.35 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $259.46 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$653.69
Market-Implied Growth
+29.6%/yr
vs +5.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$312.10 – $526.35
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for META (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $45.0B · 2.55B shares · net debt $22.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$401.55
-38.6% vs $653.69
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 16.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $653.69; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.3% | $484 | $517 | $556 | $602 | $657 |
| 9.3% | $416 | $440 | $467 | $499 | $536 |
| 10.3% | $363 | $381 | $402 | $425 | $451 |
| 11.3% | $321 | $335 | $351 | $368 | $388 |
| 12.3% | $288 | $299 | $311 | $325 | $340 |