TGM's two-stage DCF values MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) between $2,002.33 and $3,240.98 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $2,577.31. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$1,876.33 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +10.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.6% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.6% | $2,002.33 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.6% | $2,577.31 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.6% | $3,240.98 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $435.20 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$1,876.33
Market-Implied Growth
+10.2%/yr
vs +44.8% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$2,002.33 – $3,240.98
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MELI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.8B · 0.05B shares · net debt $5.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$2577.31
+37.4% vs $1876.33
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1876.33; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.6% | $3100 | $3305 | $3543 | $3824 | $4159 |
| 9.6% | $2669 | $2820 | $2991 | $3189 | $3418 |
| 10.6% | $2334 | $2449 | $2577 | $2722 | $2888 |
| 11.6% | $2067 | $2157 | $2256 | $2366 | $2490 |
| 12.6% | $1850 | $1921 | $1999 | $2085 | $2180 |
