TGM's two-stage DCF values MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI) between $1,953.24 and $3,140.72 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $2,506.67. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.8%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$1,801.44 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +9.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.8% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.8% | $1,953.24 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.8% | $2,506.67 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.8% | $3,140.72 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $440.75 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$1,801.44
Market-Implied Growth
+9.9%/yr
vs +46.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$1,953.24 – $3,140.72
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MELI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $5.8B · 0.05B shares · net debt $5.4B
Estimated Fair Value
$2506.67
+39.1% vs $1801.44
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $1801.44; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | $3004 | $3196 | $3419 | $3679 | $3988 |
| 9.8% | $2596 | $2738 | $2899 | $3084 | $3298 |
| 10.8% | $2276 | $2385 | $2507 | $2644 | $2799 |
| 11.8% | $2020 | $2106 | $2200 | $2305 | $2422 |
| 12.8% | $1811 | $1879 | $1954 | $2036 | $2127 |
