Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Marriott International, Inc. (MAR)'s fair value in a range of $85.33 – $182.56 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $393.61 sits above that range — by these conservative assumptions it looks richly valued; the reverse-DCF below is the better lens for a high-growth name.
Reverse DCF: at today's $393.61, the market is pricing in roughly +20.5%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of +24.4%. The price assumes a slowdown from its track record — a potential value signal if growth holds.
Current Price
$393.61
Fair-Value Range
$85.33 – $182.56
Market-Implied Growth
+20.5%/yr
vs +24.4% 5Y actual
MAR DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $2.3B · 0.26B shares · net debt $15.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$85.33
-78.3% vs $393.61
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $393.61; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $121 | $130 | $141 | $154 | $170 |
| 9.0% | $95.14 | $101 | $109 | $117 | $127 |
| 10.0% | $75.72 | $80.23 | $85.33 | $91.17 | $97.90 |
| 11.0% | $60.45 | $63.76 | $67.45 | $71.60 | $76.31 |
| 12.0% | $48.15 | $50.63 | $53.37 | $56.42 | $59.83 |
About Marriott International, Inc.
Marriott International, Inc. is a leading global hospitality firm responsible for managing, franchising, and licensing a wide range of accommodation options, including hotels, residential units, and timeshare resorts, on an international scale. The company segments its extensive operations into North America (covering the U.S. and Canada) and its various international divisions. Under its corporate umbrella, Marriott oversees a diverse collection of esteemed brands, such as JW Marriott, The Ritz-Carlton, W Hotels, Sheraton, Westin, and Courtyard, among many others. As of February 15, 2022, its impressive network encompassed nearly 8,000 properties—specifically 7,989 establishments—operating across 139 countries and territories under 30 distinct hotel brand names. Established in 1927, Marriott International, Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Bethesda, Maryland.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Travel Lodging
- CEO
- Anthony G. Capuano Jr.