TGM's two-stage DCF values Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) between $121.31 and $238.60 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $174.64. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$328.79 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +31.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.7% | $121.31 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.7% | $174.64 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.7% | $238.60 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $178.36 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$328.79
Market-Implied Growth
+31.3%/yr
vs +22.2% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$121.31 – $238.60
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MAR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.3B · 0.26B shares · net debt $15.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$174.64
-46.9% vs $328.79
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $328.79; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | $226 | $248 | $273 | $305 | $343 |
| 8.7% | $183 | $198 | $216 | $237 | $262 |
| 9.7% | $151 | $162 | $175 | $189 | $206 |
| 10.7% | $125 | $134 | $144 | $154 | $167 |
| 11.7% | $105 | $112 | $119 | $128 | $137 |
