TGM's two-stage DCF values Marriott International, Inc. (MAR) between $122.36 and $241.22 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $176.26. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (capped at 18%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (9.6%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$374.43 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +34.1% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.6% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.6% | $122.36 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.6% | $176.26 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.6% | $241.22 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 25, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $178.60 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$374.43
Market-Implied Growth
+34.1%/yr
vs +24.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$122.36 – $241.22
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for MAR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.3B · 0.26B shares · net debt $15.8B
Estimated Fair Value
$176.26
-52.9% vs $374.43
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $374.43; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.6% | $228 | $251 | $277 | $310 | $350 |
| 8.6% | $185 | $200 | $218 | $240 | $265 |
| 9.6% | $152 | $163 | $176 | $191 | $209 |
| 10.6% | $126 | $135 | $145 | $156 | $168 |
| 11.6% | $106 | $113 | $120 | $129 | $138 |
