Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. (LYV) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for LYV
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Live Nation Entertainment, Inc. right now — free cash flow is currently depressed by a heavy investment cycle while revenue keeps growing. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$175.85 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +32.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 9.7% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 10.7% | $71.07 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 9.7% | $96.03 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 8.7% | $125.97 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $219.35 | |
Current Price
$175.85
Market-Implied Growth
+32.4%/yr
vs +100.7% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$96.03
model output — not a price target
LYV DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LYV (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $968.9M · 0.23B shares · net debt $3.3B
Estimated Fair Value
$172.31
-2.0% vs $175.85
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $175.85; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7.7% | $227 | $243 | $262 | $284 | $313 |
| 8.7% | $186 | $197 | $209 | $224 | $241 |
| 9.7% | $156 | $164 | $172 | $182 | $194 |
| 10.7% | $133 | $138 | $145 | $151 | $159 |
| 11.7% | $115 | $119 | $123 | $128 | $134 |
About Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.
Live Nation Entertainment, Inc., incorporated in 2005 and formerly known as Live Nation, Inc. until its name change in January 2010, is a global leader in live entertainment, headquartered in Beverly Hills, California. The company's diverse operations are organized into three primary business segments: Concerts, Ticketing, and Sponsorship & Advertising. The Concerts segment is responsible for organizing and promoting live musical performances, utilizing its extensive portfolio of owned or managed venues, as well as various rented third-party locations. This division also oversees the management and operation of music venues, produces major music festivals, develops related content, and offers management and other support services to artists. Through its Ticketing segment, Live Nation manages a comprehensive suite of ticketing operations. This includes supplying advanced ticketing software and services to its clients and facilitating the sale of tickets for both its own events and a wide array of third-party performances and gatherings. These range from professional sports and collegiate athletics to performing arts, museums, and theaters, with tickets distributed via leading online platforms like livenation.com and ticketmaster.com, mobile applications, and various physical outlets. The segment also provides services for ticket resale. The Sponsorship & Advertising division focuses on developing and executing global, national, and local sponsorship programs and advertising campaigns. This involves selling placements for signage, promotional activities, and rich media advertisements—including those associated with live streaming and music-related content—distributed throughout its vast ecosystem of venues, events, and digital properties. Additionally, this segment specializes in crafting and producing bespoke events and programs tailored to specific brand requirements. As of December 31, 2021, Live Nation Entertainment owned, operated, or leased 165 entertainment venues across North America and an additional 94 international entertainment venues.
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Industry
- Entertainment
- CEO
- Michael Rapino