Why we don't show a single “fair value” for LULU
Even the conservative scenario ($254.48) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$103.19 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -14.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.4% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 12.0%/yr | 9.4% | $254.48 |
| Base case | 15.0%/yr | 8.4% | $334.31 |
| Optimistic | 18.0%/yr | 7.4% | $454.66 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 8, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $306.04 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$103.19
Market-Implied Growth
-14.8%/yr
vs +15.0% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$334.31
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LULU (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 0.11B shares · net cash $1.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$334.31
+224.0% vs $103.19
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 15.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $103.19; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.4% | $418 | $459 | $510 | $575 | $664 |
| 7.4% | $346 | $372 | $404 | $443 | $492 |
| 8.4% | $294 | $313 | $334 | $360 | $390 |
| 9.4% | $256 | $270 | $285 | $303 | $323 |
| 10.4% | $227 | $237 | $248 | $261 | $276 |
