Why we don't show a single “fair value” for LULU
Even the conservative scenario ($276.68) sits far above today's price — trailing cash flows may be cyclically elevated. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$114.28 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -11.9% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 14.6%/yr | 9.5% | $276.68 |
| Base case | 17.6%/yr | 8.5% | $363.14 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 7.5% | $481.41 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $303.93 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$114.28
Market-Implied Growth
-11.9%/yr
vs +17.6% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$363.14
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LULU (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.3B · 0.11B shares · net cash $1.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$363.14
+217.8% vs $114.28
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 17.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $114.28; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.5% | $454 | $497 | $552 | $621 | $714 |
| 7.5% | $376 | $404 | $438 | $480 | $532 |
| 8.5% | $320 | $340 | $363 | $391 | $423 |
| 9.5% | $278 | $293 | $310 | $329 | $351 |
| 10.5% | $246 | $257 | $270 | $284 | $300 |
