LKQ Corporation (LKQ) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values LKQ Corporation (LKQ) between $32.59 and $73.70 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $48.77. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$26.20 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -6.3% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.3% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.3% | $32.59 |
| Base case | 3.4%/yr | 8.3% | $48.77 |
| Optimistic | 6.4%/yr | 7.3% | $73.70 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $83.70 | |
Current Price
$26.20
Market-Implied Growth
-6.3%/yr
vs +3.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$32.59 – $73.70
model output — not a price target
LKQ DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LKQ (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $922.5M · 0.25B shares · net debt $4.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$50.97
+94.5% vs $26.20
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $26.20; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $71.64 | $78.71 | $87.64 | $99.28 | $115 |
| 7.3% | $55.84 | $60.20 | $65.48 | $71.98 | $80.18 |
| 8.3% | $44.71 | $47.59 | $50.97 | $54.98 | $59.83 |
| 9.3% | $36.45 | $38.45 | $40.74 | $43.39 | $46.50 |
| 10.3% | $30.09 | $31.52 | $33.14 | $34.98 | $37.08 |
About LKQ Corporation
LKQ Corporation, established in 1998 and headquartered in Chicago, Illinois, specializes in distributing replacement parts and systems essential for vehicle repair and maintenance. Its operations are structured across three primary segments: North America, Europe, and Specialty. The company's extensive product catalog includes a wide array of items for collision repair, such as bumper covers, automotive body panels, lighting, and automotive glass products like windshields. It also supplies salvaged mechanical and collision components, including engines, transmissions, door assemblies, and sheet metal parts like hoods, fenders, and trunk lids, alongside scrap metal for recycling. For mechanical repairs, the company offers a comprehensive range of products, including brake components (pads, discs, sensors), clutches, steering and suspension systems, filters, various automotive fluids, and electrical items such as spark plugs and batteries. Additionally, its Specialty offerings encompass recreational vehicle appliances and air conditioners, towing hitches, truck bed covers, vehicle protection products, cargo management solutions, wheels, tires, and specialized suspension products. LKQ caters to a broad customer base, including collision and mechanical repair shops, new and used car dealerships, and individual retail consumers. Its market presence spans numerous countries, including the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Germany, Italy, Poland, Belgium, the Netherlands, Luxembourg, the Czech Republic, Austria, Slovakia, Taiwan, and various other European nations.
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Industry
- Auto - Parts
- CEO
- Justin L. Jude