TGM's two-stage DCF values LKQ Corporation (LKQ) between $32.82 and $68.99 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $45.34. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use) (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$24.11 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -7.5% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.3% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.3% | $32.82 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 8.3% | $45.34 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 7.3% | $68.99 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 11, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $78.15 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$24.11
Market-Implied Growth
-7.5%/yr
vs +1.7% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$32.82 – $68.99
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LKQ (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $922.5M · 0.25B shares · net debt $4.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$45.34
+88.1% vs $24.11
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $24.11; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $61.06 | $68.75 | $78.45 | $91.07 | $108 |
| 7.3% | $47.44 | $52.43 | $58.45 | $65.85 | $75.20 |
| 8.3% | $37.83 | $41.29 | $45.34 | $50.15 | $55.95 |
| 9.3% | $30.69 | $33.20 | $36.09 | $39.43 | $43.33 |
| 10.3% | $25.16 | $27.07 | $29.21 | $31.64 | $34.42 |
