TGM's two-stage DCF values LKQ Corporation (LKQ) between $32.59 and $73.82 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $48.85. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (8.3%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$26.40 is justified only if free cash flow grows about -6.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 8.3% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 9.3% | $32.59 |
| Base case | 3.4%/yr | 8.3% | $48.85 |
| Optimistic | 6.4%/yr | 7.3% | $73.82 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 29, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $81.25 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$26.40
Market-Implied Growth
-6.2%/yr
vs +3.4% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$32.59 – $73.82
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LKQ (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $922.5M · 0.25B shares · net debt $4.5B
Estimated Fair Value
$48.85
+85.0% vs $26.40
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 3.4%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $26.40; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6.3% | $65.55 | $73.72 | $84.02 | $97.43 | $116 |
| 7.3% | $51.09 | $56.38 | $62.77 | $70.64 | $80.56 |
| 8.3% | $40.88 | $44.55 | $48.85 | $53.96 | $60.12 |
| 9.3% | $33.30 | $35.97 | $39.03 | $42.57 | $46.72 |
| 10.3% | $27.44 | $29.46 | $31.73 | $34.31 | $37.26 |
