Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for LEU
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($70.89) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$171.13 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +58.8% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 8.9%/yr | 11.7% | $58.55 |
| Base case | 11.9%/yr | 10.7% | $63.74 |
| Optimistic | 14.9%/yr | 9.7% | $70.89 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $133.21 | |
Current Price
$171.13
Market-Implied Growth
+58.8%/yr
vs +11.9% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$63.74
model output — not a price target
LEU DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LEU (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $25.6M · 0.02B shares · net cash $743.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$72.37
-57.7% vs $171.13
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 11.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $171.13; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | $80.58 | $82.61 | $84.97 | $87.75 | $91.06 |
| 9.7% | $74.71 | $76.14 | $77.77 | $79.64 | $81.82 |
| 10.7% | $70.16 | $71.20 | $72.37 | $73.69 | $75.19 |
| 11.7% | $66.55 | $67.33 | $68.19 | $69.15 | $70.22 |
| 12.7% | $63.62 | $64.21 | $64.86 | $65.57 | $66.37 |
About Centrus Energy Corp.
Centrus Energy Corp. is a global provider of essential nuclear fuel and associated services to the nuclear power industry, serving markets including the United States, Japan, and Belgium. The company operates through two primary divisions: Low-Enriched Uranium (LEU) and Technical Solutions. The LEU segment specializes in supplying key components for nuclear energy production, offering separative work units (SWU) — either as a standalone part of LEU or combined with natural uranium — as well as natural uranium, primarily to utilities operating nuclear power plants. Conversely, the Technical Solutions segment offers a comprehensive array of services, encompassing technical expertise, manufacturing, engineering design, procurement, construction management, and operational support. This segment caters to both public and private sector clients, with notable involvement in projects such as the engineering and testing of the American Centrifuge. Established in 1998, the company was formerly known as USEC Inc. before officially changing its name to Centrus Energy Corp. in September 2014. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Bethesda, Maryland.
- Sector
- Energy
- Industry
- Uranium
- CEO
- Amir V. Vexler