Why we don't show a single “fair value” for LEU
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($73.88) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$151.68 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +54.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 11.2%/yr | 11.7% | $60.35 |
| Base case | 14.2%/yr | 10.7% | $66.03 |
| Optimistic | 17.2%/yr | 9.7% | $73.88 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $129.24 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$151.68
Market-Implied Growth
+54.0%/yr
vs +14.2% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$66.03
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for LEU (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $25.6M · 0.02B shares · net cash $743.5M
Estimated Fair Value
$66.03
-56.5% vs $151.68
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 14.2%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $151.68; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | $71.09 | $73.06 | $75.34 | $78.02 | $81.22 |
| 9.7% | $66.93 | $68.38 | $70.03 | $71.93 | $74.13 |
| 10.7% | $63.68 | $64.79 | $66.03 | $67.43 | $69.03 |
| 11.7% | $61.08 | $61.95 | $62.91 | $63.98 | $65.18 |
| 12.7% | $58.96 | $59.65 | $60.41 | $61.25 | $62.17 |
