The Kroger Co. (KR) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put The Kroger Co. (KR)'s fair value in a range of $37.31 – $85.19 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $62.99 sits within that range — roughly fairly valued on these assumptions.
Reverse DCF: at today's $62.99, the market is pricing in roughly +9.8%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of -2.2%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$62.99
Fair-Value Range
$37.31 – $85.19
Market-Implied Growth
+9.8%/yr
vs -2.2% 5Y actual
KR DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $2.3B · 0.62B shares · net debt $14.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$37.31
-40.8% vs $62.99
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $62.99; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $52.23 | $56.14 | $60.77 | $66.32 | $73.11 |
| 9.0% | $41.45 | $44.13 | $47.22 | $50.82 | $55.08 |
| 10.0% | $33.25 | $35.15 | $37.31 | $39.77 | $42.62 |
| 11.0% | $26.80 | $28.19 | $29.75 | $31.51 | $33.50 |
| 12.0% | $21.60 | $22.65 | $23.80 | $25.09 | $26.53 |
About The Kroger Co.
The Kroger Co. functions as a significant retail entity throughout the United States, encompassing a varied collection of store formats. Its operations include integrated food and drug stores, which stock a broad range of products from natural and organic sections to pharmacies, general merchandise, pet centers, fresh seafood, and organic produce. The company also runs multi-department stores that broaden their offerings to include apparel, home fashion and furnishings, outdoor living goods, electronics, automotive products, and toys. Furthermore, Kroger's marketplace stores blend comprehensive grocery services, pharmacies, health and beauty care, and perishable items with general merchandise such as clothing and household goods. Its price impact warehouse stores, on the other hand, concentrate on providing groceries, health and beauty essentials, meat, dairy, baked goods, and fresh produce at competitive prices. Beyond its retail presence, Kroger is involved in manufacturing and processing food products, which it then sells through its own supermarkets and online platforms. The company also operates 1,613 fuel centers, selling fuel to customers. As of January 29, 2022, The Kroger Co. managed 2,726 supermarkets, operating under numerous brand names across 35 states and the District of Columbia. Established in 1883, the company is headquartered in Cincinnati, Ohio.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Grocery Stores
- CEO
- Gregory S. Foran