TGM's two-stage DCF values The Kroger Co. (KR) between $35.40 and $84.50 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $52.02. Growth is taken from the company's own record (blend of 5-year revenue and FCF growth (floored at 2%)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$56.87 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +3.4% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 8.5% | $35.40 |
| Base case | 2.0%/yr | 7.5% | $52.02 |
| Optimistic | 5.0%/yr | 6.5% | $84.50 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Jul 26, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $82.37 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$56.87
Market-Implied Growth
+3.4%/yr
vs -1.6% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$35.40 – $84.50
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for KR (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $2.3B · 0.61B shares · net debt $14.9B
Estimated Fair Value
$52.02
-8.5% vs $56.87
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $56.87; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $74.40 | $86.56 | $103 | $125 | $159 |
| 6.5% | $54.62 | $61.93 | $71.05 | $82.76 | $98.37 |
| 7.5% | $41.44 | $46.25 | $52.02 | $59.06 | $67.85 |
| 8.5% | $32.02 | $35.40 | $39.33 | $43.97 | $49.53 |
| 9.5% | $24.96 | $27.44 | $30.26 | $33.52 | $37.32 |
