TGM's two-stage DCF values Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) between $10.30 and $30.65 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $18.13. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$31.12 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +16.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.3%/yr | 8.5% | $10.30 |
| Base case | 7.3%/yr | 7.5% | $18.13 |
| Optimistic | 10.3%/yr | 6.5% | $30.65 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 1, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $53.24 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$31.12
Market-Implied Growth
+16.2%/yr
vs +7.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$10.30 – $30.65
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for KDP (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 1.36B shares · net debt $15.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$18.13
-41.7% vs $31.12
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $31.12; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $26.93 | $31.71 | $38.08 | $46.99 | $60.34 |
| 6.5% | $19.16 | $22.02 | $25.61 | $30.21 | $36.34 |
| 7.5% | $13.98 | $15.87 | $18.13 | $20.89 | $24.34 |
| 8.5% | $10.29 | $11.61 | $13.15 | $14.97 | $17.15 |
| 9.5% | $7.52 | $8.49 | $9.60 | $10.87 | $12.36 |
