Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP) DCF Valuation
Transparent DCF models put Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. (KDP)'s fair value in a range of $8.36 – $54.40 — the low end is TGM's conservative base case (5% FCF growth, 10% discount), the high end the analyst consensus (FMP). Today's price of $32.12 sits within that range — roughly fairly valued on these assumptions.
Reverse DCF: at today's $32.12, the market is pricing in roughly +15.9%/yr free-cash-flow growth over the next decade (at a 10% required return) — versus its actual 5-year FCF CAGR of -5.8%. The price is betting on acceleration above its track record.
Current Price
$32.12
Fair-Value Range
$8.36 – $54.40
Market-Implied Growth
+15.9%/yr
vs -5.8% 5Y actual
KDP DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Illustrative model — not investment advice. Defaults to a conservative base case; the analyst (FMP) DCF, where available, is shown as a reference below.
Base inputs: FCF $1.6B · 1.36B shares · net debt $15.1B
Estimated Fair Value
$8.36
-74.0% vs $32.12
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 5.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $32.12; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0% | $13.08 | $14.32 | $15.78 | $17.54 | $19.69 |
| 9.0% | $9.67 | $10.52 | $11.49 | $12.64 | $13.98 |
| 10.0% | $7.07 | $7.68 | $8.36 | $9.14 | $10.04 |
| 11.0% | $5.03 | $5.47 | $5.97 | $6.52 | $7.15 |
| 12.0% | $3.39 | $3.72 | $4.08 | $4.49 | $4.95 |
About Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. is a prominent beverage firm with operations spanning both the United States and global markets. The company structures its business across four primary divisions: Coffee Systems, Packaged Beverages, Beverage Concentrates, and Latin America Beverages. Its Coffee Systems division is responsible for the production and distribution of an array of finished products linked to its coffee brewing systems, including K-Cup single-serve pods, brewing machines, and specialized coffee blends. Brewers are offered for sale via external distributors, various retail outlets, and directly through its official website, keurig.com. The Packaged Beverages segment focuses on manufacturing and distributing its proprietary packaged drink labels. It also undertakes contract manufacturing for a diverse range of private label and up-and-coming beverage brands, in addition to handling distribution for its partner brands' packaged offerings. The Beverage Concentrates division produces and markets liquid concentrates for a wide portfolio of well-known brands such as Dr Pepper, Canada Dry, A&W, 7UP, Sunkist, Squirt, Big Red, RC Cola, Vernors, Snapple, Mott's, Bai, Hawaiian Punch, Clamato, Yoo-Hoo, Core, ReaLemon, evian, Vita Coco, and Mr and Mrs T mixers; this segment also processes these concentrates into syrup form. In Latin America, the Beverages segment handles the production and distribution of sparkling mineral water, flavored carbonated soft drinks, purified bottled water, and vegetable juice products, marketed under brand names like Peñafiel, Clamato, Squirt, Dr Pepper, Crush, and Aguafiel. Its extensive client base includes retailers, bottling and distribution networks, restaurants, hotel groups, office coffee service providers, and individual consumers. Established in 1981, Keurig Dr Pepper Inc. maintains its corporate headquarters in Burlington, Massachusetts.
- Sector
- Consumer Defensive
- Industry
- Beverages - Non-Alcoholic
- CEO
- Timothy Cofer