TGM's two-stage DCF values Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. (JKHY) between $131.74 and $255.72 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $179.45. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$155.95 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +4.6% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.9%/yr | 8.5% | $131.74 |
| Base case | 7.9%/yr | 7.5% | $179.45 |
| Optimistic | 10.9%/yr | 6.5% | $255.72 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 10, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $203.04 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$155.95
Market-Implied Growth
+4.6%/yr
vs +16.5% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$131.74 – $255.72
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for JKHY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $489.9M · 0.07B shares · net cash $102.0M
Estimated Fair Value
$179.45
+15.1% vs $155.95
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.9%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $155.95; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $233 | $262 | $301 | $356 | $437 |
| 6.5% | $186 | $203 | $225 | $253 | $291 |
| 7.5% | $154 | $166 | $179 | $196 | $217 |
| 8.5% | $132 | $140 | $149 | $160 | $173 |
| 9.5% | $115 | $121 | $127 | $135 | $144 |
