TGM's two-stage DCF values Jack Henry & Associates, Inc. (JKHY) between $143.81 and $280.94 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $196.58. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (7.5%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$147.75 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +1.0% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 7.5% required return — slower than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 4.6%/yr | 8.5% | $143.81 |
| Base case | 7.6%/yr | 7.5% | $196.58 |
| Optimistic | 10.6%/yr | 6.5% | $280.94 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Sep 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $179.39 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$147.75
Market-Implied Growth
+1.0%/yr
vs +18.0% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$143.81 – $280.94
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for JKHY (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $549.0M · 0.07B shares · net debt $27.9M
Estimated Fair Value
$196.58
+33.0% vs $147.75
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 7.6%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $147.75; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.5% | $256 | $288 | $331 | $391 | $481 |
| 6.5% | $204 | $223 | $247 | $278 | $319 |
| 7.5% | $169 | $181 | $197 | $215 | $238 |
| 8.5% | $144 | $153 | $163 | $175 | $190 |
| 9.5% | $125 | $132 | $139 | $148 | $158 |
