Why we don't show a single “fair value” for ITRI
Even the optimistic scenario of a conservative trailing-FCF model ($49.63) sits far below today's price — the market is paying for growth and durability beyond what this model structure captures. The honest lens is the question below: what growth does today's price actually require? The model scenarios are listed further down for reference.
What would today's price require?
$101.48 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +25.7% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.7% | $30.28 |
| Base case | 2.1%/yr | 10.7% | $37.28 |
| Optimistic | 5.1%/yr | 9.7% | $49.63 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 13, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $66.04 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$101.48
Market-Implied Growth
+25.7%/yr
vs +2.1% 5Y actual
Base-Case Model Value
$37.28
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ITRI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $152.8M · 0.04B shares · net debt $247.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$37.28
-63.3% vs $101.48
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.1%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $101.48; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | $44.80 | $47.71 | $51.09 | $55.06 | $59.79 |
| 9.7% | $38.62 | $40.78 | $43.23 | $46.04 | $49.31 |
| 10.7% | $33.79 | $35.44 | $37.28 | $39.37 | $41.73 |
| 11.7% | $29.90 | $31.20 | $32.63 | $34.22 | $36.00 |
| 12.7% | $26.72 | $27.75 | $28.89 | $30.14 | $31.52 |
