Itron, Inc. (ITRI) DCF Valuation
TGM's two-stage DCF values Itron, Inc. (ITRI) between $29.90 and $49.45 depending on assumptions, with a base case of $37.16. Growth is taken from the company's own record (5-year revenue CAGR (FCF growth too volatile to use)), fading to 2.5% long-run; the discount rate (10.7%) reflects its beta.
What would today's price require?
$83.87 is justified only if free cash flow grows about +21.2% a year (fading to 2.5% long-run) at a 10.7% required return — faster than the company has actually grown.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 0.5%/yr | 11.7% | $29.90 |
| Base case | 2.3%/yr | 10.7% | $37.16 |
| Optimistic | 5.3%/yr | 9.7% | $49.45 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $74.17 | |
Current Price
$83.87
Market-Implied Growth
+21.2%/yr
vs +2.3% 5Y actual
Model Scenario Range
$29.90 – $49.45
model output — not a price target
ITRI DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for ITRI (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $152.8M · 0.04B shares · net debt $247.6M
Estimated Fair Value
$36.90
-56.0% vs $83.87
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 2.3%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $83.87; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | $45.97 | $48.09 | $50.55 | $53.44 | $56.88 |
| 9.7% | $39.59 | $41.08 | $42.78 | $44.73 | $46.99 |
| 10.7% | $34.61 | $35.69 | $36.90 | $38.28 | $39.84 |
| 11.7% | $30.60 | $31.41 | $32.30 | $33.30 | $34.42 |
| 12.7% | $27.31 | $27.93 | $28.60 | $29.35 | $30.18 |
About Itron, Inc.
Itron, Inc., a technology, solutions, and service company, provides end-to-end solutions that help manage energy, water, and smart city operations worldwide. It operates in four segments: Device Solutions, Networked Solutions, Outcomes, and Resiliency Solution. The Device Solutions segment offers hardware products that are used for measurement, control, or sensing, such as standard gas, electricity, water, and communicating meters, as well as heat and allocation products. The Networked Solutions segment provides communicating devices, such as smart meters, modules, endpoints, and sensors; network infrastructure; network design services; and associated heat-end management and application software for acquiring and transporting application-specific data. This segment also products and software for the implementation, installation, and management of communicating devices and data networks; offers industrial internet of things solutions, including automated meter reading; advanced metering infrastructure for electricity, water, and gas; distributed energy resource management; grid edge devices; distribution automation communications; smart lighting; and smart city sensors and applications. The Outcomes segment provides value-added, enhanced software and services, artificial intelligence, and machine learning, statistical modeling, and other analytics. The Resiliency Solutions segment offers software and services. The company offers implementation, project management, installation, consulting, and post-sale maintenance support services, as well as cloud and software-as-a-service; and extended or customer-specific warranties. It offers its products and services under the Itron brand. The company serves utility and smart city customers, and municipalities through its sales force, distributors, agents, partners, and meter manufacturer representatives. Itron, Inc. was incorporated in 1977 and is headquartered in Liberty Lake, Washington.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Hardware, Equipment & Parts
- CEO
- Thomas L. Deitrich