Samsara Inc. (IOT) DCF Valuation
Why we don't show a single “fair value” for IOT
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Samsara Inc. right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.7% | $1.94 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.7% | $2.32 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.7% | $2.75 |
| Analyst DCF (FMP) | independent reference — different model | $24.59 | |
Current Price
$31.29
Market-Implied Growth
—
Base-Case Model Value
$2.32
model output — not a price target
IOT DCF Fair Value Calculator
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for IOT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $44.4M · 0.58B shares · net cash $318.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$3.48
-88.9% vs $31.29
Sensitivity — fair value by discount rate × terminal growth
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $31.29; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.7% | $4.26 | $4.45 | $4.68 | $4.95 | $5.27 |
| 9.7% | $3.70 | $3.84 | $4.00 | $4.18 | $4.39 |
| 10.7% | $3.27 | $3.37 | $3.48 | $3.61 | $3.76 |
| 11.7% | $2.93 | $3.00 | $3.09 | $3.18 | $3.28 |
| 12.7% | $2.65 | $2.71 | $2.77 | $2.84 | $2.92 |
About Samsara Inc.
Samsara Inc. specializes in providing solutions that digitize and connect physical operations data to its centralized Connected Operations Cloud, accessible to clients across the United States and internationally. At the core of this cloud-based platform is a robust Data Platform. This platform systematically collects, aggregates, and enriches information streamed from Samsara's proprietary IoT devices, featuring integrated capabilities including artificial intelligence, workflow automation, advanced analytics, instant alerts, API connectivity, and comprehensive data security and privacy measures. Additionally, the cloud offers a suite of applications covering critical operational areas such as video-based safety protocols, vehicle fleet telematics, driver application and workflow tools, equipment performance monitoring, and enhanced site visibility. The company caters to a diverse array of sectors, including transportation and logistics, construction, field services, utilities and energy, government, healthcare and education, manufacturing, wholesale and retail trade, and the food and beverage industry. Established in 2015, Samsara maintains its headquarters in San Francisco, California.
- Sector
- Technology
- Industry
- Software - Infrastructure
- CEO
- Sanjit Biswas