Why we don't show a single “fair value” for IOT
A trailing-FCF DCF can't fairly anchor Samsara Inc. right now — free cash flow has been negative in recent years. For a company in this position, trailing free cash flow understates what the business actually earns for owners, so any “fair value” built on it would be misleadingly low. Off today's cash-flow base, no plausible growth rate bridges to the current price — the market is valuing normalized future cash flows, not the depressed base. The model scenarios below are shown for reference only.
| Scenario | FCF growth (fading to 2.5%) | Discount | Value / share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 15.0%/yr | 11.8% | $1.93 |
| Base case | 18.0%/yr | 10.8% | $2.29 |
| Optimistic | 20.0%/yr | 9.8% | $2.72 |
| Third-party model estimate (FMP) | independent reference · retrieved Aug 9, 2026 · assumptions not provided | $24.14 | |
The FMP figure is a third-party point estimate. Its cash-flow forecast, discount rate, terminal growth, and valuation date are not included in the stored response, so TGMCharts presents it only as a reference—not as an intrinsic-value conclusion or price target.
Current Price
$40.88
Market-Implied Growth
N/A
Base-Case Model Value
$2.29
model output — not a price target
Edit the assumptions to see how they change the estimated fair value. Opens seeded with TGM's data-driven base case for IOT (growth from its own 5-year record, discount from its beta), so the sandbox starts where the scenarios above leave off. Illustrative model — not investment advice.
Base inputs: FCF $44.4M · 0.58B shares · net cash $318.8M
Estimated Fair Value
$2.29
-94.4% vs $40.88
How the estimated fair value shifts with the discount rate (WACC) and terminal growth, holding your 18.0%/yr FCF growth and 10-year horizon fixed. Green = above today's $40.88; red = below. Your current case is outlined.
| WACC ↓ / Terminal → | 1.50% | 2.00% | 2.50% | 3.00% | 3.50% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.8% | $2.63 | $2.75 | $2.90 | $3.08 | $3.28 |
| 9.8% | $2.35 | $2.45 | $2.56 | $2.68 | $2.82 |
| 10.8% | $2.14 | $2.21 | $2.29 | $2.39 | $2.49 |
| 11.8% | $1.97 | $2.03 | $2.09 | $2.16 | $2.24 |
| 12.8% | $1.83 | $1.88 | $1.93 | $1.98 | $2.04 |
